I’ve been following the preparations for the Pakistani army’s offensive all week, as part of the day job. Permit me some nerdish comment here. Not affiliated to or representative of RUSI in any way of course: this is just my personal reaction to a key operation in a big war, which will change as events develop.
Sending just 28,000-30,000 lowlands-recruited soldiers to kick 10,000 professional militants off of a lot of mountains?
I’m rather sceptical.
The Pakistani army did win with 30,000 troops against a similar number of fighters in this year’s Battle for Swat, actually – but the locals had already turned against the Taliban, who were not fighting for their home base, and were not intimately tied to the Mehsud network; and unlike Waziristan, Swat didn’t offer the prospect of uprooting Al Qaeda from a very significant sanctuary.
The idea of sustaining a three-way, month-long “pincer movement” is really odd too, especially because the pincers will close at Makeen, which is right in the middle of South Waziristan.
At the same time, one pincer has the job of deploying all along the border with North Waziristan, an area which I would guess will be the main escape route for fleeing militants. This is going to be a rather difficult operation.
Also, having followed the Pakistani Taliban’s own preparations for the Pakistani army’s offensive all week too, including the attack on army HQ – I suppose it’s not surprising that the Taliban were able to cut all communications in the region just as the army got started. It’s still worrying though.
In which case, lots to follow and learn about over the next month.
PS
The Wikipedia article on the War in North-West Pakistan is exceptional.
